How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

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  • Julkaistu 27.03.2020
  • This video made possible with support of Brilliant - the first 200 subscribers to go to Brilliant.org/MinutePhysics get 20% off a Premium subscription to Brilliant.
    Go to aatishb.com/covidtrends to explore the graph from the video yourself!
    RESOURCES
    Grant's 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics: fichannel.info/videot/hJiqZqR_qnet1Z8
    Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site: github.com/aatishb/covid/blob/master/curvefit.ipynb
    Data Source: github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
    Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
    How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world? ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
    Understanding logarithmic scales: www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html
    What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight: www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028
    (Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)
    This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.
    Support MinutePhysics on Patreon! www.patreon.com/minutephysics
    Link to Patreon Supporters: www.minutephysics.com/supporters/

    MinutePhysics is on twitter - @minutephysics
    And facebook - minutephysics

    Minute Physics provides an energetic and entertaining view of old and new problems in physics -- all in a minute!

    Created by Henry Reich
  • Tiede ja tekniikka

Kommentteja • 100

  • Richard Shandross
    Richard Shandross 9 tuntia sitten

    @minutephysics, I'm afraid you have a SERIOUS error here. What you are plotting is log(dy/dt) vs. log(y), so a straight line means log(dy/dt) = k*log(y), or dy/dt = y^k.
    Thus, y = exp(integral of y^(k-1)*t). Since k < 1, this is an exponential only in form because as y grows the y^(k-1) term shrinks. If k = 0.5, then by the time there are a million cases, that term is 10^-5 of the value it started out with, assuming that k stayed constant.

  • sweiland75
    sweiland75 11 tuntia sitten

    America doesn't seem at all interested in containing this epidemic, especially now with the riots happening.

  • Vitaly Kroychik
    Vitaly Kroychik Päivä sitten

    Let’s go ahead and take Chinese numbers with a whole salt mine full of salt.

  • Methe Meticians
    Methe Meticians 2 päivää sitten

    Nice
    #ashoksaini

  • Drawings And Science
    Drawings And Science 2 päivää sitten

    Make a video answering this question:
    Is AI smarter than us?

  • Vito C
    Vito C 2 päivää sitten

    The Philippines is handling this horribly. We don't even know how our curve looks because the government won't conduct mass testing as adequate levels. And we're relaxing quarantine measures (after THREE MONTHS) before we've even seen any evidence that the curve is flattening.

  • Balesy10plays Yt
    Balesy10plays Yt 2 päivää sitten

    Roses are red violets are blue why does the Karen think covid-19 is just the ordinary flu

  • Douglas Powell
    Douglas Powell 3 päivää sitten

    Can you revisit with current data and talk about why so many countries demonstrate exponential decay, but not USA? I also tried looking at new cases as ppm and displayed not as absolute numbers but rate of change. There appears to be a period "bump" approximately every 7 days. Is this real or a result of how data is collected?

  • snehalkumar padghane
    snehalkumar padghane 3 päivää sitten

    How's india doing ?Plz reply

  • Paul T Sjordal
    Paul T Sjordal 3 päivää sitten

    Lately, Republicans have been using the Total Cases statistic to argue that blue states have a worse response to this pandemic than red states.
    This video beautifully explains why changes in New Cases is the most relevant statistic if we want to talk about a given government's response to this pandemic.

    • Paul T Sjordal
      Paul T Sjordal 3 päivää sitten

      www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
      This does not make the same calculation the Minutephysics channel suggests, but it does show changes in new cases over time broken down by state.

  • Jennifer Beveridge
    Jennifer Beveridge 3 päivää sitten

    Two months later, and I'm still checking this graph on a daily basis. I've noticed that rather than a flat or smooth curve, my state's version of "leveling out" is a series of dips where the weekly infection rate is between 500 to 600 new cases, and peaks where it's in the upper 700's. That made me wonder: since going out to restock my fridge / pantry is unavoidable, is it safer to go out during a dip or a peak? Are there any epidemiologists who've worked this out with previous infectious diseases?

  • choreomaniac
    choreomaniac 4 päivää sitten +1

    Pennsylvania department of health has adopted this graphic animation!

  • Arvind Nande
    Arvind Nande 5 päivää sitten

    And another Indian!

  • m mandrewa
    m mandrewa 5 päivää sitten

    The graph (and video) should be modified by doing a log plot of new reported deaths per million versus a log plot of total reported deaths per million. In the absence of that it is quite misleading and is virtually certain to lead to widespread misunderstanding.

  • m mandrewa
    m mandrewa 5 päivää sitten

    I like this a lot. It seems like a good idea.
    But where the heck is the follow-up?
    Since this important you should be updating it at least once a week. You don't have to do it yourself, just modify the intro, not the video, but the blub below the video, by posting a link to someone else that is doing this.

    • m mandrewa
      m mandrewa 5 päivää sitten

      Ok, I've found it.
      See aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths

      The US fell off the line in the first half of April.
      And I believe that graph and the graph in this minutephysics video would be improved if it did a log/log plot of new reported deaths per million versus total reported deaths per million. As it is this plot falsely makes it appear as if many countries that are not doing well, like for instance Belgium, are doing very well, simply and only because they are small.

  • Duncan
    Duncan 5 päivää sitten

    .

  • houndarchon1
    houndarchon1 5 päivää sitten

    the aatishb site seems down :( could you reupload the covidtrends data and graphs to some other place? thanks!

  • Hamisi Abdallah
    Hamisi Abdallah 6 päivää sitten

    You can make this Juice at home to attack Covid-19 Virus.fichannel.info/videot/orFooHuqf55umXA

  • Gordon GM
    Gordon GM 6 päivää sitten

    Oh yeah China successfully contained the virus? I doubt that

  • Initially Intellectual
    Initially Intellectual 6 päivää sitten

    Why you stoped uploading

  • Jesse Wood
    Jesse Wood 6 päivää sitten +4

    “In these uncertain times, times can be a little uncertain. And when times are uncertain it can be hard to know for certain what time it is” - Ryan George

  • BugPvP :p
    BugPvP :p 7 päivää sitten +1

    1:31
    OMG THAT TOOK SO LONG TO CAPTURE
    "*Hertzsprung-Russell, anyone?"

  • Randy Smith
    Randy Smith 7 päivää sitten

    That might as well be a plot of China's credibility...
    DROPPING LIKE A ROCK!

  • Jinhong PARK
    Jinhong PARK 7 päivää sitten +2

    My country: *I AM MEDICINE*
    My country: South Korea

    • Amethyst
      Amethyst 10 tuntia sitten

      왜 쪽팔림은 우리 몫..

  • Kalan Saunders
    Kalan Saunders 8 päivää sitten +2

    Covid 19 is ending in Australia

  • Eben Visher
    Eben Visher 8 päivää sitten

    What a fantastic video! Thanks so much for your time!!

  • 王荺勝
    王荺勝 8 päivää sitten +2

    Chinese data are fake

  • 刘娅
    刘娅 8 päivää sitten

    well, I'm from china and now an American university student, and I stay hometown now, wait for maybe fall semester back. we all don't believe the real case turns to absolute 0, but from February everyone from Wuhan or outside travels to another place will be stayed at home 14 days to confirm(no matter you have any symptom)if you get COVID. and from February one family only got 2day once going out chance for buying some food. the government may or must hide some cases but in china what CCP(you remind this word)say, most Chinese will follow and do even they don't agree with a lot...
    so all people in China don't have any outside action from February, the Wuhan get "city lockdown"(you can't leave your city absolutely anyway) I can't trust the sudden fall of the case but the increase or we actually be lower than many countries I think...south Korea did something likely, they lock their country.
    I love America and for china not to the government lot, I love our people...some doctors work nearly 20 days and sleep totally less than 20hour to save people...that's a challenge to everyone
    希望全世界所有国家的人民早日摆脱这场灾难(best wishes for all people around the world get rid of this disaster ASAP )

  • Alexander Jackson
    Alexander Jackson 9 päivää sitten

    Could you make another video with these sort of graphs, to show which countries are recovering well and which aren't? It's the best way I've seen so far.

  • Eva Lam
    Eva Lam 9 päivää sitten +1

    China is LYING !!!!

    • karen
      karen 9 päivää sitten

      That's true, the CCP has lied again and again, ten million people have died here, come and save us plz ,XD

  • nitchvideo
    nitchvideo 9 päivää sitten

    Here is a powerful source of understanding. fichannel.info/videot/oK94l39opKabrKs and yes it is more help than the news or government in understanding

  • John the Greek
    John the Greek 9 päivää sitten

    Don't want to shit on your parade but China is most likely lying.
    Great video though

  • Freeda Peeple
    Freeda Peeple 10 päivää sitten

    I was not expecting a cogent, clear, informative video, but that's what I got! Thanks!!

  • Benjamin Genco
    Benjamin Genco 10 päivää sitten

    I keep coming back to get the link to the chart, hoping the US marker is gonna plummet

    • m mandrewa
      m mandrewa 5 päivää sitten

      And I was right. I've tracked it down and the US data begins to fall off that line sometime in the first half of April.

    • m mandrewa
      m mandrewa 5 päivää sitten

      I'm pretty certain it has. This graph and video are from two months ago, when the American epidemic had just begun.
      In fact I'll bet the US data plummeted over a month ago, back in the first half of April.

  • Jewelry Bag
    Jewelry Bag 10 päivää sitten

    This is a media-manufactured plandemic to further destroy the middle class and create a monopolistic dystopia. More people die of smoking, heart disease and cancer than this virus but the elites control the media narrative and, consequently, are controlling the sheep. I am so pissed off

  • wojeff
    wojeff 10 päivää sitten

    March 24: this video was filmed
    March 25: highest exponential growth point in US
    March 26: start of exponential growth decline in US
    March 27: this video premiered

  • Eugenia Sum
    Eugenia Sum 10 päivää sitten

    They didn’t include Taiwan tho

    • wojeff
      wojeff 10 päivää sitten

      I think emphasis was shown on countries with significant case totals. It's there and now in the main view too (good work Taiwan!)! aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Taiwan

  • Bern Metro
    Bern Metro 10 päivää sitten

    Please provide a updated version; same message new graphs. The presentation of the animated "waves of data populating the Logarithm plane is excellent!. If made current, it could demonstrate the increasing hope many need.

    • m mandrewa
      m mandrewa 5 päivää sitten

      @wojeff Ok thank you again. It me a few minutes to figure out what they were doing and to find the plot of new reported deaths versus total reported deaths.
      Here's the problem. Why not normalize the data?
      That is divide the numbers on each axis by the population of the country. That would make it possible to compare countries. As it is right now, it makes it appear that the United States is doing very badly, when this is largely an artifact of it being both the largest country plotted plus having more complete data.

    • m mandrewa
      m mandrewa 5 päivää sitten

      @wojeff Thanks!

    • wojeff
      wojeff 10 päivää sitten

      aatishb.com/covidtrends/

  • Jorge Cossa
    Jorge Cossa 10 päivää sitten

    Nice

  • Mario Z
    Mario Z 11 päivää sitten

    The one caveat and maybe most important is that confirmed cases is such an unreliable measure since countries have varying levels of testing and testing is inaccurate. I feel like a new number of deaths vs confirmed deaths graph would be a more realistic trend.

    • wojeff
      wojeff 10 päivää sitten

      That was addressed in the video. Counterpoint, you can't have deaths if you don't have cases (so grim!). They have done that for deaths here: aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths

  • Yash Pal Goyal
    Yash Pal Goyal 12 päivää sitten

    6:26 please pronounce the names correctly - T in Bhatia (spelt wrong in vid) is different from t in Aatish (correctly spelt in vid). GoogleTranslate says it right:
    translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=hi&tl=en&text=%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%B6%20%E0%A4%AD%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%9F%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%AF%E0%A4%BE

    • Yash Pal Goyal
      Yash Pal Goyal 12 päivää sitten

      otherwise a really nice video and thanks for bringing him in my notice. The site contains some really cool things that i am looking forward to experiment with some day.

  • Arwah Sapi
    Arwah Sapi 13 päivää sitten

    Statisticians: "Alright guys! It's our time to shine!"

  • Fez Paladin
    Fez Paladin 13 päivää sitten

    WHAT ABOUT TAIWAN?

  • sk Farhan
    sk Farhan 14 päivää sitten

    Hey you haven't made new video yet
    Where are you?

  • John Hailstone
    John Hailstone 14 päivää sitten

    And post-viral effects.

  • LIL JON'S
    LIL JON'S 14 päivää sitten

    Do a vid on if earth had 2 moons.....

  • IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ
    IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ 14 päivää sitten

    >implying the CCP will give accurate information about anything

  • tom091178
    tom091178 15 päivää sitten

    Diseases are a mechanism of evolution.

  • Tae-young Kim
    Tae-young Kim 15 päivää sitten

    중국은 조작인거 아시죠?

  • North Korea
    North Korea 15 päivää sitten +7

    America:vrroomm vrroommm hell yea im going fast af
    China:oi, im doing 2nd wave of covid 19 lets see how it goes

    • no name
      no name 7 päivää sitten

      Russia: Cyka Blyat

    • Wendull 81
      Wendull 81 9 päivää sitten

      Brazil: Hey Hey wait for me.

  • 52marli
    52marli 16 päivää sitten

    I would rather know how many are sick and how sick the positives are. As long as you keep testing the number of cases will increase....but if its rare that positives are sick enough to require hospitalizations, that's what is important to me.

  • Dodger Yassel
    Dodger Yassel 16 päivää sitten

    You're an idiot. Your pseudoscience just tries to connect popular topics to some random concept in physics for views. You're a hack.

  • khoen Da boss
    khoen Da boss 17 päivää sitten +1

    Is this the guy who had a whole video about using cats to power Norway? Yeah it is.

  • Jean Poutine
    Jean Poutine 17 päivää sitten

    Total bulls**t by another person infected with Digital Narcissism peddling unicorn feces. Nobel laureate Pro. Michael Levitt studied Covid case growth rates starting with Wuhan and showed that the reported growth rates never achieved "exponential" slope, used 2nd derivative standard, and this mistaken assumption was why Neil Ferguson's initial mortality estimates were pure bolux. Covid case growth rates are about as exponential as the hits on this web-page.

  • Davin Riedstra
    Davin Riedstra 17 päivää sitten

    This is a great video. Perhaps even the best I've seen in the realm of Covid-19 coverage and understanding. I would love to see the timelapse graph updated for the end of May or beginning of June.

  • Parakmi I
    Parakmi I 17 päivää sitten

    To make the gaphs look better imagine that humans are the disease.

  • pragadeesh sv
    pragadeesh sv 18 päivää sitten

    can u please say which animation software did u usesd for ur video?

  • DONG YEUN KIM
    DONG YEUN KIM 18 päivää sitten

    COVID-19:
    *_exists_*

    Korea CDC:
    *_So you have chosen D E A T H_*

  • Rin
    Rin 18 päivää sitten

    this graph reveals how absolutely shockingly insufficient the US response has been. oh.. my god..

    • Mister Comple
      Mister Comple 15 päivää sitten

      your comment reveals how absolutely shockingly inept you are at understanding data

  • jokinabadsbs
    jokinabadsbs 18 päivää sitten

    China... Success?! HAH what a joke.

  • CircleDrawing
    CircleDrawing 19 päivää sitten

    US isn't tough

  • 김철수
    김철수 20 päivää sitten

    국뽕...

  • Jacob E Owens
    Jacob E Owens 21 päivä sitten

    Nobody believes the numbers out of China...

  • Simranjeet singh matharoo
    Simranjeet singh matharoo 21 päivä sitten +1

    "don't plot against time"
    that's a life hack right there

  • what is life
    what is life 22 päivää sitten

    Chinas deaths are lies. There must be more deaths than the rate it apparantly is right now. The virus came from there!

    • karen
      karen 9 päivää sitten

      Yes, you are right, a billion people have died here

  • Rachel’s rants I.
    Rachel’s rants I. 22 päivää sitten

    Can’t believe Chinas data. They lied to us.

  • AGR
    AGR 22 päivää sitten +3

    Imagine believing China’s reported numbers...

  • 소고기커피
    소고기커피 22 päivää sitten +1

    im s. korean myself but i have to disagree with this. i dont even trust south korean statistics of coronavirus. they actually gave up the test but are using it politically for the sake of their support. all the media are saying koreans are fucking best and never criticize or analyze about the numbers. we are fucked. literally. fucked.

  • Paul Matencio
    Paul Matencio 23 päivää sitten

    Hey ! You forget Vietnam, a country with 95 millions people . 0 dead

  • Naomi Harding
    Naomi Harding 23 päivää sitten

    Please do more covid data vids, or share links to more content like this. Thankyou.

  • Ciron Soauv
    Ciron Soauv 24 päivää sitten

    What is amazing is that, even with under reported numbers, the graph still shows if growth is in exponential phase or not. Government would need to "exponentially" cheat to fake falling out of the curve...

  • Bigdatamonk Inc.
    Bigdatamonk Inc. 24 päivää sitten

    @minutephysics
    Doesn't the graph look similar because the logarithmic scale is too big to measure(comparative minor) deviations? It's like differentiating 2 stars in the sky, despite being very different in size they would look more or less similar, like a dot. Kindly enlighten.

  • banbanrocks
    banbanrocks 24 päivää sitten

    Clearly something wrong with Japan figures, no?

    • Russ Wilkie
      Russ Wilkie 21 päivä sitten +1

      It could just be a culture thing. Japan is a lot more hands off country that actually listens to their government about facemasks and social distancing.

  • Ron Chasr
    Ron Chasr 24 päivää sitten

    Your not and wont be for a while. Dont be surprised if you have 200,000 or even 1,000,000 dead. America is finally no.1 at something.

  • Robert Lockwood
    Robert Lockwood 24 päivää sitten

    Be nice to see the graphs normalized by cases per 100,000 population but I expect that there would be even more overlap.

  • dead pool
    dead pool 25 päivää sitten

    Are we wining or losing

  • Matthew Snyder
    Matthew Snyder 25 päivää sitten

    fichannel.info/videot/ja5weZlogo2CvZ8

  • XCMysterious Hope
    XCMysterious Hope 25 päivää sitten

    After watching a video on the number of infections, and realizing that it was not what I wanted to know, this was very beneficial.

  • Harb Winetin
    Harb Winetin 25 päivää sitten

    China's number of cases are a lie of course.

    • banbanrocks
      banbanrocks 24 päivää sitten

      People like you are the cause of delayed responses in the West. Arrogant and ignorant. Mostly arrogant, I'd say.

  • savemelofi
    savemelofi 25 päivää sitten

    Can someone explain to me why the CCP is being defended in these comments?

    • savemelofi
      savemelofi 19 päivää sitten

      @banbanrocks But the CCP has been covering up the truth.

    • banbanrocks
      banbanrocks 24 päivää sitten

      It's about the truth, not CCP.

  • Ben E
    Ben E 25 päivää sitten

    Probably should throw out chinas numbers...

  • DEMONSTRIA WOO
    DEMONSTRIA WOO 25 päivää sitten +1

    Good job Trump, you made the West and the East turn against each other once again.

    • banbanrocks
      banbanrocks 24 päivää sitten

      Hope not. If the people of West and East would listen to Trump and really turn against each other, we as mankind deserve to be doomed

  • DEMONSTRIA WOO
    DEMONSTRIA WOO 25 päivää sitten +5

    I like how everyone is being biased to China while I sit here as a Chinese and say, “Okay, THIS IS ALL GONNA BE FINE.”

    • IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ
      IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ 13 päivää sitten

      The problem is China's oppressive, lying, single-party government. The people of China are not to blame for the actions (and non-actions) of the CCP.

  • Prakash Goyal
    Prakash Goyal 25 päivää sitten

    Hello friends today is my birthday. Kya aap mere ko ak subscribe gift me de sakte ho

  • supersonic2K8
    supersonic2K8 26 päivää sitten

    This animation is also shows the overall trend of kills scored by my civilization in Stellaris over the course of the game. Exponential growth untill only my civilization remains. >:)

  • 한강 물 온도 알리미Hangang Temprature Teller

    Just don't do it.

  • Eclipse Z
    Eclipse Z 26 päivää sitten +14

    My country *I AM SPEED*
    Also my country- *The USA*

  • aredesuyo
    aredesuyo 26 päivää sitten

    So basically, when you consider all the caveats, you just wasted your time making a nice visualization of a bunch of bullshit.

    • Russ Wilkie
      Russ Wilkie 21 päivä sitten

      This is about Covid-19, not about your conception

  • Harrison Yoo
    Harrison Yoo 26 päivää sitten +1

    Not China though

  • Our World Visualised
    Our World Visualised 26 päivää sitten

    Good stuff

  • Tim Allen
    Tim Allen 26 päivää sitten

    Is there a more up to date version of the data yet? I would love to see how the UK compares with the rest of the world.

  • DANGER DOG
    DANGER DOG 26 päivää sitten

    If you think China is being truthful about their death numbers, you are an ignoramus.

  • hawk0485
    hawk0485 27 päivää sitten

    Why did you remove the country selection tool?!

  • Darren Dentremont
    Darren Dentremont 28 päivää sitten

    Why are you showing China ? There numbers are not to be trusted at all.

  • mt89
    mt89 28 päivää sitten

    COVID 19 ORIGINATED in USA. The virus was leaked from Fort Detrick, Maryland in July 2019. The bio-warfare lab was subsequently shutdown due to leakage. A substantial proportion of US flu cases were in fact covid19 cases. On 12 Mar 2020, CDC official had admitted that "some" flu cases in the US are COVID 19 cases. COVID 19 is spreading in US as early as August 2019, the gov just covers it up. The American athletes brought the virus to Wuhan when they participated in World Military Games.
    www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-further-evidence-virus-originated-us/5706078
    #Thanksforthevirus
    #UScovid19
    #NewYorkVirus
    #AmericaVirus
    #FluNoTestNoVirus
    #NoWearMask

  • THE THIRD EYE
    THE THIRD EYE 28 päivää sitten

    18 thing you should know about COVID fichannel.info/videot/hmeKenetiayevIk

  • j c
    j c 29 päivää sitten

    idk why youtube are so sour. the country of china is opening up the society, kids are going to school, factories are open, things are running back to normal. if the gov lies then there will be a hell show of dead body laying every, which is not the case. why don't some just admit that many countries like america and britain got y'all fucked up, world is not expect you make no mistake. looks like a joke when y'all yelling fake number with millions infected to some other countries where people back to normal life and don't give shit what you think

  • Robert Cruikshank
    Robert Cruikshank 29 päivää sitten +1

    Where can we see an updated version?? This is extremely well done! EDIT: Found it! aatishb.com/covidtrends/
    Link sent by a student of mine.

    • Likey
      Likey 27 päivää sitten

      It’s in the description, too.. and gets updated daily

    • Robert Cruikshank
      Robert Cruikshank 28 päivää sitten

      aatishb.com/covidtrends/ link was sent to me by a student!

  • Awake Freedom
    Awake Freedom 29 päivää sitten

    Ok so check this
    fichannel.info/videot/iap-gHqEgXSmz6M

  • Sascha Fischer
    Sascha Fischer 29 päivää sitten +1

    Can you do an update on this chart that would be really cool.